TLT ETF 4-YEAR DAILY OHLC
At the time, although many analysts were advancing the position of moving into bonds as an insurance hedge against a possibly overheated stock market, I was instead advancing caution and warning readers of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern in bonds possibly in the making. The wisdom of taking profits on the strong double-long swing trade opportunity alert I previously issued the week of March 11TH. This chart highlights the rather overall precarious nature of this year within the last phase of this cycle.
I also remain open to closing out my short term long in these events, and considering a position reversal. A breakout above the downward projection of the down-trending bi-annual echovector (highlighted in solid aqua blue), which also so very interestingly reflects the slope of the currently active annual echovector for last week's (and this year's) price low would be reinforcing and bullish. But even this potential breakout should be viewed within the context of the two (solid blue purple) presidential cycle forward price vectors pointing to the end of the year and the beginning of next year, as measured from this spring's top.
Regarding any long term short positions that may still be open from that top, I would tend to consider them primarily mature, especially in the short term and at the current level of extension, and to possibly be at risk. Therefore I would be ready to monitor them closely, and be analysing their potential cover or continuance within short term trading considerations.
One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilise the TLT ETF mentioned in this analysis by setting up an advanced trade technology approach (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") to positioning and position management, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included; for example, at $106.50 on the TLT.I