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Friday, 28 March 2014

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METHODOLOGY NOTES
"EchoVector Theory and EchoVector Analysis assert that a securities prior price patterns may influence its present and future price patterns. Present and future price patterns may then, in part, be considered as 'echoing' these prior price patterns to some identifiable and measurable degree.
EchoVector Analysis is also used to forecast and project potential price Pivot Points (referred to as PPP's --potential pivot points, or EVPP's --EchoVector Pivot Points) and active, past and future coordinate forecast echovector support and resistance echovectors (SREV's) for a security from a starting reference price at a starting reference time, based on the securities prior price pattern within a given and significant and definable cyclical time frame.
EchoVector Pivot Points and EchoVector Support and Resistance Vectors are fundamental components of EchoVector Analysis. EchoVector SREV's are constructed from key components in the EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation. EchoVector SREV's are defined and calculated and also referred to as Coordinate Forecast EchoVectors (CFEV's) to the initial EchoVector (XEV) calculation and construction, where X designates not only the time length of the EchoVector XEV, but also the time length of XEV's CFEVs. The EchoVector Pivot Points are found as the endpoints of XEV's CFEVs' calculations and the CFEVs' constructions.
The EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation is a fundamentally different and more advanced calculation than the traditional pivot point calculation.
The EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation differs from traditional pivot point calculation by reflecting this given and specified cyclical price pattern length and reference, and its significance and information, within the pivot point calculation. This cyclical price pattern and reference is included in the calculations and constructions of the echovector and its respective coordinate forecast echovectors, as well as in the calculation of the related echovector pivot points.
While a traditional pivot point calculation may use simple price averages of prior price highs, lows and closes indifferent to their sequence in time to calculate its set of support and resistance levels, the echovector pivot point calculation begins with any starting time and price point and respective cyclical time frame reference X, and then identifies the corresponding "Echo-Back-Date-TimeAndPrice-Point (EBD-TPP)" within this cyclical time frame reference coordinate to the starting reference price and time point A. It then calculates the echovector (XEV) generated by the starting reference time/price point and the echo-back-date-timeandprice-point, and includes the pre-determined and pre-defined accompanying constellation of "Coordinate Forecast EchoVector" origins derived from the prior price pattern evidenced around the echo-back-date-timeandprice-point within a certain pre-selected and specified range (time and/or price version) that occurred within the particular referenced cyclical time-frame and period X. Security I's EchoVector Pivot Point constructions then calculate and project the scope relative echovector pivot points that follow A, and the support and resistance levels determined by the ensuing coordinate forecast echovectors and their selected range definition inclusion (fully differentiating the time-sequence of the origins), the cyclical time-frame X, and to XEV's slope.
EchoVector Pivot Points are therefore advanced and fluid calculations and effective endpoints of projected coordinate forecast echovector support and resistance time/price levels, projections that are constructed from and follow in time from the starting reference price, time/price point A (echovector endpoint) of the initial subject focus echovector construction, and which occur within an EchoVector Pivot Point Price Projection Parallelogram construct: levels which are derived from coordinate (support and/or resistance) forecast echovectors calculated from particular 'scope and range defined' starting times and price points reflecting the time and price points of proximate scale and scope and time/price pivoting action that followed the initial subject focus interest echovector's echo-back-date-time-price-point B (derived from and relative to the initial subject focus echovector's starting time-point and price-point A, and the echovector's given and specified cyclically-based focus interest time-span X, and the initial subject focus echovector's subsequently derived slope relative momentum measures).
The EchoVector Support and Resistance Vectors, referred to as the Coordinate Forecast Echovectors, are used to generate the EchoVector Pivot Points."
From "Introduction to EchoVector Analysis And EchoVector Pivot Points" COPYRIGHT 2013 ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS
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DEFINITION: THE ECHOVECTOR 

"For any base security I at price/time point A, A having real market transaction and exchange recorded print price p at exchange of record print time t, then EchoVector XEV of security I and of time length (cycle length) X with ending time/price point A would be designated and described as (I, Apt, XEV); EchoVector XEV's end point is (I, Apt) and EchoVector XEV's starting point is (I, Ap-N, t-X), where N is the found exchange recorded print price difference between A and the Echo-Back-Date-Time-And-Price-Point of A, being (A, p-N, t-X) of Echo-Back-Time-Length X (being Echo- Period Cycle Length X).

A, p-n, t-X shall be called B (or B of I), being the EBDTPP (Echo-Back-Date-Time-And-Price-Point)*, or EBD (Echo-Back-Date)*, or EBTP (Echo-Back-Time-Point) of A of I. 

N = the difference of p at A and p at B (B being the 'echo-back-date-time-and-price-point of A found at (A, p-N, t-X.)

And security I (I, Apt, XEV) shall have an echo-back-time-point (EBTP) of At-X (or I-A-EBTP of At-X; or echo-back-date (EBD) I-A-EBD of At-X): t often displayed on a chart measured and referenced in discrete d measurement length units (often OHLC or candlestick widthed and lengthed units[often bars or blocks]), such as 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, hourly, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, daily, weekly, etc."

DEFINITION: ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINTS: CLICK HERE 
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ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FRAMECHARTS OF THE DAY
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TIME/PRICE VECTOR GUIDEMAPS OF THE DAY

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HOW TO ENLARGE FRAMECHARTS AND PRICE MAPS

______________________________________________________________________________________
HOW TO ENLARGE ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FRAMECHARTS AND FORECAST MODEL PRICE MAP IMAGES ON YOUR COMPUTER MONITOR'S DISPLAY

1. Left click on presented image of chart to open image of chart in new tab.
2. Right click on new image of chart opened in new tab to further zoom and enlarge EchoVector Analysis chart image illustrations and highlights.

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CURRENT POST

CURRENT POST
ANALYSIS, ALERTS, OTAPS SIGNALS, CHART ILLUSTRATIONS, AND COMMENTARY

Friday, March 28, 2014






Treasury Long Bond Bulls Celebrate This Week's Key Gains

Mar. 27, 2014 12:30 PM ET  |  3 comments |  Includes: BOND, GOVT, HYG, LQD, TBT, TLT
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary
  • In last Wednesday's FOMC Statement, the Federal Reserve Bank announced further tapering its bond buying program by $10 billion per month, to $55 billion.
  • Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen also surprised the markets last week by hinting that a hike in the Fed's prime lending rate might begin sooner than expected.
  • Last week's report on the Conference Board Leading Economic Index stated the LEI increased .5% in February, indicating increased economic activity and demand for money may be on the way.
  • Yesterday provided key technical support to long bond prices as prices pushed up into a key price resistance level that has stalled further gains for over half a year.
  • Long bond prices could break out to the upside.
In last week's FOMC statement, the Federal Reserve indicated it will be further tapering its bond buying program by $10 billion per month, a reduction to $55 billion. Also, in her own statement last week, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen surprised the markets by hinting that the Federal Reserve Bank may also begin to raise its prime lending rate six months sooner than most bankers and market analysts had expected.
In addition to these changes at the Fed, last week The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, the LEI, was reported to have increased .5% overall in February. This overall increase in the LEI, along with its current sector by sector balance, indicate that an increase in economic activity may be on its way in several months. Increased economic activity often spurs the demand for money, which also tends to put upward pressure on interest rates, ceteris paribus. This too could impact bond market prices, possibly adding pressure instead to the downside.
After spending several days digesting this important fundamental news, the long bond market rallied strongly on Friday, and is now challenging key technical resistance this midweek. Resistance occurs in the $109 price area measured by the popular iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond TLT ETF. Yesterday's TLT closing price was $109.44.
Long bonds have failed to rallying past this key resistance level in four attempts since late July last year. Yesterday's positive bond market price action was critical support for bond market bulls. The long bond may now be ready to break out from this key resistance level and begin a run to the upside.
Yesterday's positive price action included upside momentum in many of the key bond market cycles followed by traders and investors. In some cycles, it also included additional upside price momentum pivoting as well. The important weekly cycle, the monthly cycle, the two-month cycle, the quarterly cycle, the annual cycle, the two-year congressional cycle, and the four-year presidential cycle are each currently projecting positive upside price momentum going forward. Holding gains above the $109 level the remainder of this week, and into next Wednesday, would be a very positive setup for the long bond.
Yesterday's strong and timely price action, and its positive directional implications for long bond market prices, especially within the popularly watched and traded quarterly cycle, are highlighted in the charts that follow.
TLT ETF 3-month Hourly OHLC Quarterly Perspective
  • With Quarterly Cycle EchoVector (White)
  • Bi-Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
  • Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Peach)
  • Tri-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Grey)
  • Bi-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
  • Weekly Cycle EchoVector (White)
(click to enlarge)
TLT ETF zoom of the chart above to show the 1-month hourly OHLC perspective and other weekly cycle perspectives within the current quarterly cycle of the chart.
(click to enlarge)
To view the longer annual cycle, congressional cycle, and presidential cycle perspectives, which highlight how bond prices are coming into positive price uplift periods in each, see this past Monday's article titled "Long Bond Treasury Cycles, Current Price Resistance And Fed Chairman Yellen's Comment Impact."
Kevin Wilbur
Contributor, Alpha Brand Newsletters Group
Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analyst 
                 PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST

Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.

Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.

For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".
For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".

See THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND POSITION MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER for further updates that might develop regarding this analysis.

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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF: POWERFUL SETUP AND RESULTS THIS WEEK FROM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS ARTICLE ALERT ON TREASURY LONG BOND MARKET AND ACTIVE OTAPS-PPS ADVANCED POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: 420% GAINS ON SIMPLE APRIL CALL EV-OTAPS-PPS LEVEL 1 ACTIVE POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND EXECUTION

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 235PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM



Critical support came in as focused today on WEV yielding strong wev and qev pivot with upside bias forward now firming -- in this key zoom inflection point area.  See article below.  Treasury long bond bulls celebrating today looking forward.


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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1250PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM

tlt etf  1220 PM dst 1-week 5-minute ohlc wev perspective

1228

1246

1250

ZOOM REFRESH





Posted by at  

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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1250PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM


AMRH: American Market Regular Hours
MBH: Morning Block High (Price)

tlt etf  1220 PM dst 1-week 5-minute ohlc wev perspective

1228

1246

1250

ZOOM REFRESH





Posted by at 10:02 AM 

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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF KEY WEV FORWARD ECHOPERIOD WATCH IN EFFECT: DT & STST BASIS

1ST phase 1220 to 125

2ND phase 200 to 225

FIOP Off last week's Wednesday pre- and post- FOMC Statement

PRICE LEVEL MAINTANCE INSTEAD OF ECHO PRICE FALLOFF IN THESE PERIODS, AND ECHO-DIVERGENCE, WOULD GENERATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE UPSIDE PIVOT PRICE POTENTIAL ON WEV BASIS

WEV SYMMETRY TRANSPOSITION BIAS IS FOR RELATIVE PRICE WEAKENING IN THIS PERIOD

COUNTERVALENT PRICE EXTENSION RELATIVE STRENGTH TO ECHO EXTENSION WOULD PRODUCE WEV UPSIDE PIVOT AND CORRESPONDING EXTRAPOLATED POTENTIAL FOLLOWTHROUGH FORWARD

DT: DAY-TRADING
STST: SHORT-TERM SWING-TRADING
Posted by at 9:34 AM 


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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1207PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM

tlt etf  1207am dst  1-week 5-minute ohlc wev perspective


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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1137AM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM

tlt etf  1137am dst  1-month 15-minute ohlc mev with 3wev, 2wev, and wev  perspectives included.


DT & STST TRADENOTE ALERT: LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL WEV UP-PRESSURE TO POTENTIALLY BUILD IN PM IF POST 1130AM EBDTPP ECHO-WEAKNESS FROM LAST WEDNESDAY DOES NOT RECUR, OR DOES NOT RECUR IN FULL EXTENT 


tle etf  1128am dst  3-month hourly ohlc qev with mev, 3wev, 2wev, and wev  perspectives included.



PRIOR PREMIUM POST RELEASES TO MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTERS FOR ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1000AM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM 

ECHOVECTOR FRAMECHART ABBREVIATED COLOR CODE GUIDE 

(QUICK-CODE GUIDE)

PCEV
16-YEAR MATURITY CYCLE  ECHOVECTORS:  PEACH

RCCEV
8-YEAR REGIME CHANGE CYCLE  ECHOVECTORS:  AQUA-BLUE

PCEV
4-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE  ECHOVECTORS:  WHITE

CCEV
2-YEAR CONGRESSIONAL CYCLE  ECHOVECTORS:  YELLOW, AQUA-BLUE

AEV
ANNUAL ECHOVECTORS:  WHITE, RED, GREEN

2QEV
BI-QUARTERLY ECHOVECTORS:  YELLOW, AQUA-BLUE

QEV
QUARTERLY ECHOVECTORS:  WHITE, GREEN

MEV
MONTHLY ECHOVECTORS: PEACH

2WEV
BI-WEEKLY ECHOVECTORS: YELLOW

WEV: WEEKLY ECHOVECTORS: WHITE

ECHOVECTORS: SOLID

COORDINATE EXTENSION ECHOVECTORS: DOTTED

SELECT EXTENSION VECTORS: BLUE-PURPLE, RED, GREEN

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
tle etf  1000am dst  3-month hourly ohlc qev with mev, 3wev, 2wev, and wev  perspectives included.



PRIOR PREMIUM POST RELEASES TO MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTERS FOR ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

Monday, March 24, 2014

Treasury Long Bond Cycles And Current Price Resistance Levels, And Fed Chairman Yellen's Recent Comment On The Interest Rate Hike Time Table And Its Potential Impact On The Long Bond Market


Kevin Wilbur
Kevin Wilbur, Chief Market Strategist And Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist
Market Alpha Brand Newsletters Group, PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST
Monday, March 24, 2014 Updated Version
SUMMARY
  • New Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Yellen surprises the market last week by introducing a more hawkish than expected potential interest rate hike time table.
  • The treasury long bond reverses course on Friday and heads back to re-test resistance at the TLT ETF $108 to $109 price level again this year for the fourth time.
  • Key active cycles and price vectors in the long bond treasuries are coming into phase this month and what that may indicate regarding bond price action forward.
  • A strategy to consider as we test the key bond price resistance level again for breakout or reversal.
ARTICLE
Since my last article on the treasury long bond just over seven months ago, when the long bond was trading at $105.50 as measured by the TLT ETF, TLT's price has dipped down to my buy signal of $102.5 three major times: later that same August, again in September, and finally in December. Between August and October it rallied back up to just above $108 before falling all the way back again. A trading range between just over $109 and just under $102 has seemed to be in effect since about the 3RD week of July, two weeks prior to my last long bond article and analysis.
Summarizing last year, Treasury long bond prices saw a particularly difficult time between May and mid-August, beginning shortly after the Federal Reserve hinted it was developing a schedule for winding down its $85 billion per month bond purchasing program, Fed "tapering" speculation hit the bond market hard. Prices fell sharply and quickly. An 8% drop occurred during just that first month of May, from about $124 to about $114 as measured by the TLT. Nearly another 8 points came off by the first week of July, and by mid-August the TLT bounced off a summer low of just above $102, for a loss of almost 18% in just three and a half months.
Investors have since shown a strong preference for rising stocks over bonds, with the DJIA moving from about the 14,700 level to its current level around 16,300, a gain of over 11%.
On balance, treasury long bond prices have stabilize since last summer's article, finding continued technical support in this new price range. And now that we have found what could be a classic major longer term triple bottom in the long bond, some analysts consider them a buy again. However, other analysts continue to warn of what they believe will be continuing price weakness this year -- and potentially beyond.
FUNDAMENTALS
Last February 19TH's FMOC Minutes apparently provided little additional lift to bond prices; in fact, bonds broke down to new annual lows the very next day, on Thursday, before ending the week. That following Thursday's better-than-expected ADM payroll number and ISM manufacturing number also appeared to be catalysts for the breakdown. Friday's worse-than-expected job numbers and further moderating comments by the St. Louis Fed President on Fed tapering helped halt Thursday's strong dire-looking long bond price down-pressure and continued downward momentum, at least going into the weekend. Long bond prices stabilized that week in the TLT $106-$107 range. The following week, coming off the typical monthly cyclical price strength that has occurred regularly so far this year, the TLT rallied back up to around the $109 level before beginning to sag again. We've seen this price level toppiness challenged with slightly descending lower highs for resistance on February 3RD, March 3RD, and again on March 14TH before going into last week's FOMC Statement on Tuesday, March 18TH, this past. See the chart below for perspective and highlights on this price action.
The March 18 FOMC Statement also did little in itself to inspire long bond prices to lift beyond resistance. In fact, over the next two days TLT prices dropped almost a full point, from about $108 to $107, and a retest of the $106 levels seemed yet again imminent. However, many headlines have carried new Chairman Yellen's hint that a Fed rate hike may be in the offing up to 6 months ahead of many banker's expectations, and as early as 4 months from now. And this issue, now digested, has appeared to charge the market, and we saw a bounce back above the $108 level before Friday's close.
And this year's and last fall's $108-$109 resistance levels is again being challenged, but this time at a very interesting cyclical time, and off some very interesting comment by the new Fed Chairman.
TECHNICALS
In this context, today is a very good day for a review of a price chart of the treasury long bond from an EchoVector Pivot Point Analysis Perspective. Today's review will be an update to the charts presented in my last article,"Today's EchoVector Pivot Point Chart And Analysis: The Long Treasury Bond", published last August 5TH. We're looking for occurrences of possible echovector price symmetries forward for the past quarter (quarterly cycle), the past year (annual cycle), the past 2-years (congressional cycle), and the past 4-years (presidential cycle) that may be forming within the context of this past week's and this past month's general price levels and their price action, and we are intending to review these potentially relevant cyclical time frame symmetries' for their potential trading implications going forward, especially with regard to any cyclical up-pressure breakout potential from the current $108-$109 resistance price level area.

This coming week is sure to be a significant week in the long bond market on this score, as we once again challenge this resistance after the Fed Chairman's comments last week. In this analysis, I will highlight these four primary Cyclical EchoVector Perspectives for their forward trading implications. In additional charts I'll also note the shorter Bi-Monthly Cycle EchoVector and the Monthly Cycle EchoVectors and consider their potential pivot point projections as well.
TLT ETF
4-YEAR DAILY, 2-YEAR DAILY, 1-YEAR DAILY, AND QUARTERLY CYCLE ECHOVECTOR PERSPECTIVES
(White, Yellow, Red, and Green)
In the above chart we notice the significant symmetry occurring around this past Friday and the corresponding echo-backdates on the annual cycle, and on the congressional cycle and on the presidential cycle as well. We also note the price lift that occurred from the preceding Wednesday low into the close of this last day of trading, Friday, before options expiration, in the corresponding echo-back time-period in the quarterly cycle and in the annual cycle and in the bi-annual cycle. And, we also see the relative strength and potential price uplift that occurs from the Tuesday that follows in the first week of April within in each of these cycle's respective echo-back time-periods. Also, the echovector coordination that occurs from the preceding nearby monthly lows to the monthly lows preceding Friday's close (preceding dotted coordinate echovector), within each echovector cycle illustrated, and the corresponding slope momentum indicated in each active echovector (solid color) illustrated, is also quite significant. These powerful symmetries may strengthen the argument for near-term positioning bias to the upside after the first week of April's early week lows.
Zoom of
Congressional Cycle EchoVector and Key Coordinate Echo-backdates (Yellow) and
Annual Cycle EchoVector and Key Coordinate Echo-backdates (Red)
The above chart zoom further identifies these key corresponding symmetries and coordinate preceding echovectors to the corresponding cycle echovectors discussed above.
Further Zoom of
Quarterly Cycle EchoVector and Key Coordinate Echo-backdates (Green) and
Bi-Monthly Cycle EchoVector and Key Coordinate Echo-backdates (Grey) and
Monthly Cycle EchoVector and Key Coordinate Echo-backdates (Peach)
The further zoomed chart above additionally identifies the key active monthly (peach) and bi-monthly (grey) echovectors and their echo-backdates to this past Friday's close. What is noteworthy here is that, although the quarterly echovector (green) identifies weakness on a cyclical quarterly echo-back time-period for the weak following the Friday's echo-backdate, suggesting the same forward this quarter, both the monthly echovector and the bi-monthly echovector indicate potential relative strength forward, both occurring in this calendar year. We also note the key descending triple top resistance price level formed in February and March, and how we are moving now a forth time into testing it again, and this time from a higher low.
ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS AND FORWARD POSITIONING STRATEGY
Last week's FOMC Statement and new Fed Chairman Yellen's recent comments regarding the potential interest rate hike time table, and the recent challenge yet again to the key price resistance level this year, makes this a particularly timely period to consider attention to long bond positioning strategy forward. Adding to these influences are the convergence of positive indicators regarding symmetry transpositions in significant cyclical echovector periods, particularly in the congressional cycle echovector, the annual cycle echovector, the bi-monthly cycle echovector, monthly cycle echovector. Additionally significant echovectors also may appear to support relative price up-pressure given enough forward time into April, particularly the presidential cycle echovector and the congressional cycle echovector. However, the annual cycle echovector at the end of April becomes precipitously negative, and positive counter-clockwise pivoting action in this significant echovector would need to ensue for further gains to occur.
Remaining nimble while preparing for a potential retest of key resistance levels, while being prepared for both reversal and breakout, may be the key this week. We've implied that we plan to look at opportunities for potential short-term long side swing trading bias implementation going forward, keep an eye on the annual, bi-annual, and presidential cycle echovectors going forward, as well as the shorter term quarterly and monthly based echovectors within the annual cycle evidenced in the charts above. We will also be prepared for possible continuations in the annual cycle down-pressure as well.
If you believe the time has come to re-enter the treasury long bond, I suggest using active and adjustable straddling positions to manage your exposure to general price level changes in either direction. Setting advanced management straddles at key coordinate forecast levels is an effective and opportune measure, and advanced trade strategy I think prudent to mention. Such an approach to the bond market at this time could prove very valuable at engaging and effectively managing risk and reward. One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the TLT ETF mentioned in this analysis by setting up an advanced trade technology approach (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") to positioning and position management, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included -- for example, at $108.50 on the TLT.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below $108.50 on the TLT pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at this trigger level on reverse down-tick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action. To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above 108.50 pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse down-tick down-through action.
We hoping the analysis provided in this article helps to lend additional context to your potentially already broad and extensive bond market view and analysis, and that it helps you to further sharpen your clarity and insight. I always recommend considering a broad range of considerations, analysis, and approaches when assessing the markets for any investment decision.
EchoVector Type And Cycle Length Color Code Guide for Charts
  1. Presidential Cycle EchoVector (Four-Year): White
  2. Congressional Cycle EchoVector (Two-Year): Yellow
  3. Annual Cycle EchoVector (One-Year): Red
  4. Quarterly Cycle EchoVector (Three Months): Green
  5. Bi-Monthly Cycle EchoVector: Grey
  6. Monthly Cycle EchoVector: Peach
  7. Select Coordinate Preceding Pivot Point EchoVectors: Dotted
  8. Select Coordinate Forecast EchoVectors: Spaced
  9. Cycle EchoVectors from Starting Date and time-point 3/21/2014 Close: Solid
Thanks for reading.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Kevin Wilbur
Contributor, Alpha Brand Newsletters Group
Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analyst 
                 PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST

Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.

Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.

For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".
For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".

See THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND POSITION MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER for further updates that might develop regarding this analysis.

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